Tensions In The Prodi Camp

The FT this morning draws attention to the ongoing jockeying for position within the Prodi coalition. Centre of most of the recent attention has been rivalry between Massimo D’Alema and Fausto Bertinotti for the position of speaker of the lower house. The FT also quotes uncritically the statement that "Mr Prodi’s opposers are predicting the government will collapse", which is something which may well happen, but the views of his opponents are hardly testimony one way or another, since, at the end of the day, they would be saying that wouldn't they.

Theoretically more interesting perhaps was the reference to the Populari-Udeur: "Clemente Mastella, leader of the centrist Udeur party, said he would offer only “external support” in parliament to Mr Prodi’s government". The FT suggest that this implies that the Udeur will be holding Prodi to ransom, but it could be that this could be read the other way and that their willingness to offer 'external support' may be what makes possible hard reform choices (the appetite for these of course is still a very open question) in the face of threats from Bertinotti or elsewhere. At the end of the day Udeur is relatively small beer (it only got 1.4% of the vote) and despite the fact it has what may appear to be three crucial seats in the 'close call' senate, there are others (like the UDC) who are theoretically in the Berlusconi camp who may well also find it possible to offer 'external support'.

All in all I think caution is called for. We will see what the Prodi government is capable, or not capable, of once it is up and running.