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Monday, September 10, 2007

Q2 2007 GDP Growth Confirmed

ISTAT have today put the detailed data for Q2 GDP growth online. As previously reported on this blog here, Italy slowed even further in the second quarter of 2007 than it did in the first quarter, and only managed to eke out a 0.1% rise quaterter on quarter. Here is the chart:



So there is basically nothing really new here, apart from a few details like the fact that exports actually fell 1 percent, a rate of decline which was up from the revised 0.1 percent contraction in the first quarter. Consumer spending also slowed to 0.6 percent rate of growth, down from the 0.7 percent rate of the first the first three months of the year. Perhaps the best thing that can be said here is that there were no downward revisions. Of course what has changed since the time of the first release is that the global financial markets have taken a severe hammering, and this will obviously now impact the real economy. I think there must be an even bet that Italy will enter a recession over the next two quarters, in which case, perhaps people could usefully spend their time preparing their arguments for those nice gentlemen from Standard and Poor's.

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