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Friday, October 24, 2008

Italian Business and Consumer Confidence Both Fall In October

Both Italian Business and Consumer Confidence fell back in October. Between the battering the Italian banking sector is taking on the one hand, and the ongoing contraction in the real economy on the other, Italy isn't exactly in the best of shape right now. Unfortuantely, despite years of warnings little was done, and now all the chickes come home to roost, and, as if in an illustration of what the expression "worst possible case scenario" means, they all come home to roost at once.


Italian business confidence sliiped to its lowest level in 15 years in October while consumer optimism eased back as the global financial crisis darkened the economic outlook and offset the positive effects of cheaper oil prices. The Isae Institute's business confidence index fell sharply to 77.7 from a revised 81.8 in September, according to the news release from the Rome-based research center earlier this morning (Friday).



Consumer confidence also slipped nack, falling to 102.2 from 102.8. Interestingly the drop in consumer confidence is not as sharp as that in business confidence, and we are still above the July low point (when oil prices hit a maximum), but the outlook for Italian households can scarcely be better than that for Italian corporates at this point. Perhaps the financial news just takes longer to sink in, while the impact of falling oil prices is pretty immediate, at least on the consumer outlook.



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